5/14 MLB Cheat Sheet

Worst Picks HR Rating Model

Power Profile - 30 ptsBarrels, pull-air, launch shape, and one-swing damage.

Batter vs Pitcher Hand Edge - 15 ptsPlatoon lane and pitch-mix fit versus opposing starter.

Pitcher HR Weakness + Fly-Ball Risk - 25 ptsHR/9 leakage, hard contact, and hittable zones.

Pitcher Weak Spots - 5 ptsOrder-slot weakness and split exposure.

Park + Weather - 10 ptsHR row, wind, temperature, and roof impact.

Recent Form + Price - 15 ptsCurrent quality and value versus listed odds.

Score Bands

90-100 Elite HR TargetHigh-end profile plus clean matchup lane.

80-89 Strong TargetLive HR setup with manageable drag.

70-79 PlayableUsable lane, mostly price-sensitive.

69 and Lower Thin / FadeMostly longshot-only exposure.

This board covers 55 listed HR props across 11 games, with 10 user-starred Worst Pickz Favorite rows.

Top 5 HR Tickets (Holistic)

Ranks blend batter damage, opposing starter HR leakage, park/weather, and listed price.

Shea Langeliers Sutter +21% vs McGreevy in Sacramento heat93

James Wood GABP + Burns LHB HR-risk split91

Luke Raley Daikin + Burrows LHB lane + BvP chip90

Yordan Alvarez Castillo HR/9 + fly-ball damage88

Mark Vientos Montero fly-ball HR profile + Citi context86

Best Park / Weather HR Rows (slate)

STL @ ATH Sutter Health +21% HR, 80s heat+21%

SEA @ HOU Daikin roof, +5% HR+5%

SD @ MIL Roof closed, +6% HR row+6%

SF @ LAD Dodger Stadium +6% HR+6%

Top 5 Weather Heavy HR Plays

#1 Shea Langeliers Sutter heat + McGreevy contact93

#2 Nick Kurtz Sacramento carry vs McGreevy85

#3 Tyler Soderstrom ATH park row vs McGreevy84

#4 Luke Raley Daikin dome + Burrows LHB90

#5 Miguel Vargas Rate small OF + Kay RHB leak86

Best Plus-Money HR (Listed)

Jose Tena +1000 vs Burns80

J.T. Realmuto +1000 vs Luzardo68

Jarren Duran +1000 vs Luzardo73

Isaac Collins +825 vs Bubic71

Harsh Environment Fades

PHI @ BOS Fenway -18% HR, 90% rain-18%

DET @ NYM Citi -8% HR, 62% rain-8%

MIA @ MIN Target -9% HR row-9%

KC @ CWS Rate -11%, cool air-11%

Legend

How to read rows: Player (hand) — listed HR line text — emoji tags — model score. Notes are batter vs opposing starter only. ⭐ = user-starred Worst Pickz Favorite row. 🕊️ = PropFinder HR-risk split clearly favors this batter's lane (see legend).

Grade: S+ / S = premium HR setup, A-B = strong playable lane, C-F = thinner or more flawed spot.

💎 Underrated / I like

⚾ Pitcher Hand Weakness / HR Target

⭐ My Favorite (see ribbon)

🚀 100+ mph EV / loud EV profile

💣 Strong blast profile

🌕 Moonshot - Elite HR Targetability

🏟️ Good Park / weather support

🩹 Sharp Spot

📜 BvP History

🕊️ Clear pitcher HR-risk advantage (PropFinder HR-risk split favors this batter's handedness / lane)

🧤 Bum onna Mound / HR-leaky SP in game title