Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Friday, September 11, 2026 — Worst Pickz HR cheat sheet with listed home run odds where available, confirmed/projected lineups, PropFinder batter data, pitcher weak spots, and Ballpark Pal rows via PropFinder Weather. This board covers 113 listed HR props across 14 games, with 18 Worst Pickz Favorite rows (⭐) and 20 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (💎). Designated Worst Pickz Favorites get the rose border; designated Hidden Gemz get the blue border and 💎 in the emoji row; the top-right Save box adds props to your local bet tracker.
Worst Picks HR Rating Model
Power Profile - 30 ptsBarrels, pull-air, launch shape, and one-swing damage.
Batter vs Pitcher Hand Edge - 10 ptsPlatoon lane and pitch-mix fit versus opposing starter.
Pitcher HR Weakness + Fly-Ball Risk - 20 ptsHR/9 leakage, hard contact, and hittable zones.
Pitcher Weak Spots - 5 ptsOrder-slot weakness and split exposure.
Park + Weather - 10 ptsHR row, wind, temperature, and roof impact.
Recent Form + Price - 15 ptsCurrent quality and value versus listed odds.
Score Bands
90-100 Elite HR TargetHigh-end profile plus clean matchup lane.
80-89 Strong TargetLive HR setup with manageable drag.
70-79 PlayableUsable lane, mostly price-sensitive.
69 and Lower Thin / FadeMostly longshot-only exposure.
Worst Pickz Straights of the Day
Over 0.5 HR Straight
Eugenio Suarez — vs May
- Primary edgefavorable split +0.16 vs May, RHB park +11%, zone fit 27.1, zone HR rate 22.2%
- Why this pick2 HR, 3 near-HR · 91.0 mph EV · split +0.16 · risk -0.04 · RHB park +11% · zone 27.1 · best O0.5 straight lane (zone fit + form + split + park)
Over 1.5 HR Straight
Junior Caminero — vs Ullola
- Primary edgestrong platoon split +1.12 vs Ullola, attackable HR risk +1.84, RHB park +11%, elite zone fit 31.9, zone HR rate 36.3%
- Why this pick2 HR, 2 near-HR · 99.4 mph EV · split +1.12 · risk +1.84 · RHB park +11% · zone 31.9 · 2 HR / 2 near-HR multi-HR profile
Goblin's Insight
3 Leg Homerun Bet
- Victor Mesa Jr. HRWorst Pickz Hidden Gem. 1 HR, 1 near-HR, 88.3 mph EV, 12.5% barrels. Ullola LHB split +1.73, HR risk 1.84. Air: FB 50%, pull-air 12%. · zone 43.9 · zone HR 55.3%
- Sal Stewart HR0 HR, 2 near-HR, 94.8 mph EV. May RHB split +0.16, HR risk -0.04. pitcher risk below avg (-0.04). Air: FB 25%, pull-air 12%. · zone 28.8 · zone HR 29.1%
- Miguel Vargas HR1 HR, 2 near-HR, 91.7 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Liberatore RHB split +0.72, HR risk 0.56. park suppresses carry (-11%). Air: FB 38%, pull-air 38%. · zone 27.1 · zone HR 17.9%
2 Leg Homerun Bet
- Randal Grichuk HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 96.6 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Liberatore RHB split +0.72, HR risk 0.56. park suppresses carry (-11%). Air: FB 50%, pull-air 38%. · zone 24.7 · zone HR 18.4%
- Nathaniel Lowe HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 90.4 mph EV, 12.5% barrels. Bradley LHB split +0.97, HR risk 0.49. park suppresses carry (-7%). Air: FB 25%, pull-air 25%. · zone 23.0 · zone HR 19.6%
Hits Parlay
- Mookie Betts, Mickey Gasper, Andrew Vaughn, Bobby Witt Jr., Randal Grichuk, Nathan Lukes
- Gleyber Torres, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Chase DeLauter, Alejandro Kirk, William Contreras
Worst Pickz Favorite 3 Leg
- Junior Caminero HR ⭐2 HR, 2 near-HR, 99.4 mph EV, 37.5% barrels. Ullola RHB split +1.12, HR risk 1.84. Air: FB 12%, pull-air 25%. · zone 31.9 · zone HR 36.3%
- Travis Bazzana HR ⭐2 HR, 2 near-HR, 90.8 mph EV, 25.0% barrels. Bradley LHB split +0.97, HR risk 0.49. park suppresses carry (-7%). Air: FB 50%, pull-air 38%. · zone 24.7 · zone HR 18.5%
- Jackson Merrill HR ⭐1 HR, 1 near-HR, 105.8 mph EV, 12.5% barrels. Molina LHB split +0.71, HR risk 0.47. park/weather net drag (-21%). Air: FB 12%, pull-air 12%. · zone 24.2 · zone HR 15.4%
Top 5 Pitchers To Attack
- Mason AdamsHR risk 2.26; vs LHB +0.28, vs RHB +3.22.
- Miguel UllolaHR risk 1.84; vs LHB +1.73, vs RHB +1.12.
- Matthew LiberatoreHR risk 0.56; vs LHB -0.06, vs RHB +0.72.
- Taj BradleyHR risk 0.49; vs LHB +0.97, vs RHB -0.32.
- Anthony MolinaHR risk 0.47; vs LHB +0.71, vs RHB +0.30.
Top 5 HR Tickets (Split + Risk + Park + Form + Zone)
Victor Mesa Jr. HOU @ TB vs Ullola • risk +1.84 • split +1.73 • park -5%90
Junior Caminero HOU @ TB vs Ullola • risk +1.84 • split +1.12 • park 11%98
Miguel Vargas CWS @ STL vs Liberatore • risk +0.56 • split +0.72 • park -9%86
Eugenio Suarez CIN @ MIL vs May • risk -0.04 • split +0.16 • park 11%86
Sal Stewart CIN @ MIL vs May • risk -0.04 • split +0.16 • park 11%76
Top 5 Weather Games
SEA @ ATH Sutter Health Park (stadium +29%, weather +7%)+35%
LAA @ WAS Nationals Park (stadium +5%, weather +8%)+13%
CIN @ MIL American Family Fld (stadium -1%, weather +4%)+3%
NYM @ NYY Yankee Stadium (stadium +3%, weather -1%)+1%
CLE @ MIN Target Field (stadium -7%, weather +7%)+0%
Top 5 Weather Heavy HR Plays
#1 Dominic Canzone vs Springs · net +35% · LHB +10% · split +1.2880
#2 Lawrence Butler vs Kirby · net +35% · LHB +10% · park-first carry82
#3 Dylan Crews vs Kikuchi · net +13% · RHB +10% · split +0.5683
#4 Yandy Diaz vs Ullola · net -3% · RHB +11% · split +1.1286
#5 Andres Chaparro vs Kikuchi · net +13% · RHB +10% · split +0.5677
Best longshot HR (listed +700+)
Travis Bazzana Listed +820 - Over 0.5 HR vs Bradley87
Jake Rogers Listed +730 - Over 0.5 HR vs Liberatore81
Kyle Tucker Listed +710 - Over 0.5 HR vs Gusto65
Thomas Saggese Listed +920 - Over 0.5 HR vs Kay82
Harsh Environment Fades
SD @ SF Oracle Park-21%
COL @ DET Comerica Park-19%
LAD @ MIA LoanDepot Park-13%
KC @ BOS Fenway Park-8%
Legend
Legend key & reading guide
💎 Underrated / I like
⚾ Pitcher Hand Weakness / HR Target
⭐ Worst Pickz Favorite (sheet-designated; rose border)
💎 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (sheet-designated; blue border)
🚀 100+ mph EV / loud EV profile
💣 Strong blast profile
🌕 Moonshot - Elite HR Targetability
🏟️ Good Park / weather support
🩹 Sharp Spot
📜 BvP History
🕊️ Pitcher HR-risk advantage
🧤 Bum onna Mound / HR-leaky SP in game title
💤 Overdue
L5 power trending up
L5 power cooling off
Neutral recent power (no badge shown)
High whiff / K% — swing-and-miss risk
Groundball-heavy profile (≥52% GB)
Low groundball rate (≤29% GB)
High hard-hit rate (≥50% HH)
Low hard-hit rate (≤30% HH)
HR Props That Cashed
Checking homers from MLB box scores…
Listed Batters Who Recorded a Hit
Checking hits from MLB box scores...