Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Worst Pickz Cheat Daily MLB Sheet
Saturday, July 11, 2026 — Worst Pickz HR cheat sheet with listed home run odds where available, confirmed/projected lineups, PropFinder batter data, pitcher weak spots, and Ballpark Pal rows via PropFinder Weather. This board covers 25 listed HR props across 7 games, with 5 Worst Pickz Favorite rows (⭐) and 1 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (💎). Designated Worst Pickz Favorites get the rose border; designated Hidden Gemz get the blue border and 💎 in the emoji row; the top-right Save box adds props to your local bet tracker.
Worst Picks HR Rating Model
Power Profile - 30 ptsBarrels, pull-air, launch shape, and one-swing damage.
Batter vs Pitcher Hand Edge - 15 ptsPlatoon lane and pitch-mix fit versus opposing starter.
Pitcher HR Weakness + Fly-Ball Risk - 25 ptsHR/9 leakage, hard contact, and hittable zones.
Pitcher Weak Spots - 5 ptsOrder-slot weakness and split exposure.
Park + Weather - 10 ptsHR row, wind, temperature, and roof impact.
Recent Form + Price - 15 ptsCurrent quality and value versus listed odds.
Score Bands
90-100 Elite HR TargetHigh-end profile plus clean matchup lane.
80-89 Strong TargetLive HR setup with manageable drag.
70-79 PlayableUsable lane, mostly price-sensitive.
69 and Lower Thin / FadeMostly longshot-only exposure.
Worst Pickz Straights of the Day
Over 0.5 HR Straight
JJ Bleday — vs Assad
- Primary edgestrong platoon split +1.57 vs Assad, attackable HR risk +0.85, park/weather +21%, elite zone fit 29.4, zone HR rate 29.0%
- Why this pick1 HR, 1 near-HR · 91.6 mph EV · split +1.57 · risk +0.85 · park +21% · zone 29.4 · best O0.5 straight lane (zone fit + form + split + park)
Over 1.5 HR Straight
Kazuma Okamoto — vs Buehler
- Primary edgestrong platoon split +1.77 vs Buehler, attackable HR risk +1.04, RHB park +12%, zone fit 22.5
- Why this pick2 HR, 2 near-HR · 89.4 mph EV · split +1.77 · risk +1.04 · RHB park +12% · zone 22.5 · 2 HR / 2 near-HR multi-HR profile
Goblin's Insight
3 Leg Homerun Bet
- Spencer Torkelson HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 86.4 mph EV. Sanchez RHB split +0.76, HR risk 0.43. park suppresses carry (-11%); lighter EV form (86.4 mph). Air: FB 20%, pull-air 30%. · zone 34.5 · zone HR 24.6%
- George Springer HR1 HR, 1 near-HR, 92.3 mph EV. Buehler RHB split +1.77, HR risk 1.04. Air: FB 10%, pull-air 10%. · zone 18.4 · zone HR 13.5%
- Shohei Ohtani HR1 HR, 2 near-HR, 89.2 mph EV. Pfaadt LHB split +1.48, HR risk 0.78. Air: FB 40%, pull-air 20%. · zone 16.7
2 Leg Homerun Bet
- Coby Mayo HR2 HR, 2 near-HR, 98.1 mph EV. Cameron RHB split +0.16, HR risk -0.07. pitcher risk below avg (-0.07); park/weather net drag (-10%). Air: FB 40%, pull-air 20%. · zone 20.8 · zone HR 17.9%
- Taylor Trammell HR2 HR, 3 near-HR, 92.1 mph EV. Rocker LHB split +0.53, HR risk -0.19. pitcher risk below avg (-0.19); park/weather net drag (-11%). Air: FB 50%, pull-air 30%. · zone 18.1
Hits Parlay
- Yordan Alvarez, Shohei Ohtani, Coby Mayo, Elly De La Cruz, Jac Caglianone, JJ Bleday
- Taylor Trammell, Bryce Harper, Kazuma Okamoto, Spencer Torkelson, George Springer
Worst Pickz Favorite 3 Leg
- Max Muncy HR ⭐0 HR, 1 near-HR, 94.0 mph EV. Pfaadt LHB split +1.48, HR risk 0.78. limited recent HR events. Air: FB 30%, pull-air 30%. · zone 20.4 · zone HR 20.2%
- Yordan Alvarez HR ⭐2 HR, 3 near-HR, 98.4 mph EV. Rocker LHB split +0.53, HR risk -0.19. pitcher risk below avg (-0.19); park/weather net drag (-11%). Air: FB 60%, pull-air 20%. · zone 39.0 · zone HR 25.3%
- Jac Caglianone HR ⭐3 HR, 3 near-HR, 100.5 mph EV. Bradish LHB split -0.02, HR risk -0.36. slight split headwind (-0.02); pitcher risk below avg (-0.36). Air: FB 40%, pull-air 20%. · zone 30.8
Top 5 Pitchers To Attack
- Walker BuehlerHR risk 1.04; vs LHB -0.09, vs RHB +1.77.
- Matthew LiberatoreHR risk 0.87; vs LHB +0.21, vs RHB +0.88.
- Javier AssadHR risk 0.85; vs LHB +1.57, vs RHB -0.35.
- Brandon PfaadtHR risk 0.78; vs LHB +1.48, vs RHB -0.44.
- Peter LambertHR risk 0.48; vs LHB +0.13, vs RHB +0.72.
Top 5 HR Tickets (Split + Risk + Park + Form + Zone)
JJ Bleday CHC @ CIN vs Assad • risk +0.85 • split +1.57 • park 22%89
Spencer Torkelson PHI @ DET vs Sanchez • risk +0.43 • split +0.76 • park 19%69
Yordan Alvarez HOU @ TEX vs Rocker • risk -0.19 • split +0.53 • park -4%78
Kazuma Okamoto TOR @ SD vs Buehler • risk +1.04 • split +1.77 • park 12%92
Elly De La Cruz CHC @ CIN vs Assad • risk +0.85 • split +1.57 • park 22%86
Top 5 Weather Games
CHC @ CIN Great American BP (stadium +14%, weather +7%)+21%
ARI @ LAD Dodger Stadium (stadium +16%, weather +5%)+21%
PHI @ DET Comerica Park (stadium -11%, weather +16%)+5%
ATH @ CHW Rate Field (stadium +2%, weather +1%)+3%
NYY @ WAS Nationals Park (stadium +3%, weather -2%)+1%
Top 5 Weather Heavy HR Plays
#1 Max Muncy vs Pfaadt · net +21% · LHB +7% · split +1.4886
#2 Shohei Ohtani vs Pfaadt · net +21% · LHB +7% · split +1.4886
#3 George Springer vs Buehler · net -1% · RHB +12% · split +1.7789
Best longshot HR (listed +700+)
Harsh Environment Fades
CLE @ MIA LoanDepot Park-12%
HOU @ TEX Globe Life Field-11%
ATL @ STL Busch Stadium-11%
MIL @ PIT PNC Park-10%
Legend
Legend key & reading guide
💎 Underrated / I like
⚾ Pitcher Hand Weakness / HR Target
⭐ Worst Pickz Favorite (sheet-designated; rose border)
💎 Worst Pickz Hidden Gemz (sheet-designated; blue border)
🚀 100+ mph EV / loud EV profile
💣 Strong blast profile
🌕 Moonshot - Elite HR Targetability
🏟️ Good Park / weather support
🩹 Sharp Spot
📜 BvP History
🕊️ Pitcher HR-risk advantage
🧤 Bum onna Mound / HR-leaky SP in game title
💤 Overdue
L5 power trending up
L5 power cooling off
Neutral recent power (no badge shown)
High whiff / K% — swing-and-miss risk
Groundball-heavy profile (≥52% GB)
Low groundball rate (≤29% GB)
High hard-hit rate (≥50% HH)
Low hard-hit rate (≤30% HH)
HR Props That Cashed
Checking homers from MLB box scores…
Listed Batters Who Recorded a Hit
Checking hits from MLB box scores...